Research Plan · Water & Resources · 2025–2030

Freshwater Systems:
measuring what we ignore

We know our carbon footprint. We rarely know our water footprint. The freshwater crisis of 2030 is already visible in the data — but the data is not yet visible to the people whose decisions drive it. This research programme develops the measurement methodology and transparency infrastructure to change that.

Active · Data published · EquoraVault integration in progress
The Problem

The invisible crisis

69%
of global freshwater use is agriculture — largely invisible to consumers
2030
projected year of global freshwater demand exceeding sustainable supply
<1%
of consumers can estimate their personal water footprint within an order of magnitude

Carbon has had thirty years of measurement infrastructure, public communication, and policy attention. Water has had none of these things at comparable scale. Yet the 2030 freshwater boundary — the point at which global demand exceeds sustainable supply — is approaching faster than the climate boundary that mobilized the carbon response.

The research gap: No standardised, individual-level water footprint measurement methodology exists that is both scientifically rigorous and practically deployable. Existing water accounting frameworks (Hoekstra's Water Footprint Assessment, ISO 14046) operate at product or regional scale — not at the individual or household level where consumption decisions are made.

Hypotheses

What we are testing

H1 — Visibility changes behaviour
Individuals with access to real-time, personalised water footprint data will reduce their water footprint by a measurably greater amount than individuals with equivalent access to general water conservation information — independent of any incentive structure. Transparency is itself an intervention.
H2 — Food dominates individual footprint
Dietary choices account for more than 70% of the individual water footprint in high-income countries — making food the primary lever for individual-level water footprint reduction. Direct water use (household, hygiene) is a secondary lever that receives disproportionate attention in public communication.
H3 — IoT measurement changes institutional behaviour
Buildings and organisations equipped with EquoraVault IoT water sensing reduce their operational water footprint by a measurably greater amount than comparable buildings without sensing — through a combination of leak detection, usage pattern visibility, and accountability reporting.
Methodology

Research and measurement approach

Individual footprint methodology
Development of a validated individual-level water footprint calculator based on dietary data, household consumption, and embedded water in purchased goods. Methodology draws on Hoekstra's Water Footprint Assessment framework, adapted for individual-level application and real-time feedback. The calculator is published openly on equora.institute.
IoT sensing via EquoraVault
EquoraVault's sensor network provides real-time water consumption data at building and neighbourhood level. The Living15 NanoLab (Budapest VII.) serves as the primary deployment site. Data is aggregated and anonymised for research purposes while individual buildings receive their own real-time dashboard.
2030 scenario modelling
AI-augmented scenario modelling of regional freshwater availability under different demand trajectories. Models integrate IPCC climate projections, agricultural demand forecasts, and population growth data to generate regional freshwater stress maps at the 2030 horizon. Published as interactive infographics accessible without technical background.
Behaviour change measurement
Longitudinal tracking of water footprint in households using the calculator, compared against matched control households. Outcome measure: monthly water footprint in litres per person per day, tracked across direct consumption and embedded (food, goods) categories. Target duration: 12 months minimum.
📊 View the published freshwater data →
Timeline

Research roadmap

2025
Data publication. Freshwater 2030 scenario analysis published. Individual footprint calculator (v1) developed. Interactive infographic published on equora.institute.
2026 Q3–Q4
IoT deployment. EquoraVault water sensing deployed at Equora Spaces (Budapest VII.). Baseline measurement established. Individual calculator promoted via iterators.org community.
2027 Q1–Q2
Behaviour study. 12-month behaviour change study begins. Living15 NanoLab water footprint tracking. First interim results published.
2027 Q3–2028
Publication. Working paper on Zenodo. Submission to journal in water resources or environmental science. Open-source methodology released for replication by other research groups.
Method & Scope

How this page was produced

Trilith Method™ · Research Card
Programme status
Active · Data published · EquoraVault integration in progress
Machine contributionI
Literature discovery and synthesis, candidate identification, computational modelling, and first drafts of this page. Volume and speed are the machine's contribution; none of it is treated as verified on its own.
VerificationII
Claims traced to primary sources rather than to summaries of them. Contested claims run through assert–refute–adjudicate across independent model families. Errors found after publication are corrected on this page with their date.
Human governanceIII
Problem selection, the evidentiary bar, and the decision to publish rest with Pölö (László Papp), EQUORA Institute, who holds editorial responsibility for this page.
Evidence basis
Stated in the Methodology section, per component. Where a source is a preprint, a pilot study, a single trial or a modelled estimate, the page says so at the point of use.
Version
v1.0 · 2026-06-27
Method
Trilith Method™ framework · how the method is being tested
What this page is

This is a research plan rather than a result. It sets out what the programme intends to test, on what basis, and what would count as failure. Parts of it will turn out to be wrong; where that happens, the correction is recorded here with its date instead of being quietly removed.

Work by third parties is attributed to its sources and described at the confidence its evidence supports. Nothing on this page should be read as professional advice in the programme's domain, and nothing here has been peer reviewed unless a specific publication is cited as such.

Research Lead

Principal investigator

Pölö (László Papp) — Founder, EQUORA Institute. Water researchers, municipalities, or organisations interested in the EquoraVault sensing deployment or the behaviour change study: lpapp@equora.institute